{"id":138,"date":"2012-02-23T14:30:46","date_gmt":"2012-02-23T13:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nuclearphilosophy.org\/?p=138"},"modified":"2013-09-12T14:55:00","modified_gmt":"2013-09-12T14:55:00","slug":"deterrence-works","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/?p=138","title":{"rendered":"Deterrence Works?"},"content":{"rendered":"

1.<\/p>\n

Vasili Arkhipov might be the most important human being who ever lived.<\/p>\n

On October 27, 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis was at its peak. An American destroyer was trying to force a Soviet submarine to surface by harrying it with depth charges. The submarine’s sleep-deprived captain \u2013 cut off from radio contact and unable to know if war had broken out \u2013 ordered the launch of a nuclear weapon. The sub’s political officer, on board to provide an external check on the captain\u2019s actions, seconded the decision.<\/p>\n

Arkhipov, the second in command, was the last of three officers who were required to consent to a launch. He refused. He talked his comrades down from the brink and persuaded them to surface the sub, thereby narrowly averting The End Of Days.<\/p>\n

Hardly anybody knew this until an academic conference in 2002, when the director of the National Security Archive unveiled some newly declassified documents and announced that \u2018a guy called Vasili Arkhipov saved the world.\u2019<\/p>\n

Arkhipov is not the only person with such a claim, however.<\/p>\n

On September 26, 1983, Soviet missile warning systems indicated that a US first strike was underway. It was at another point of extreme tension between the US and USSR, with a large US military exercise being widely perceived in the Kremlin as a cover for war preparations.<\/p>\n

The mechanics of Deterrence meant the Soviets had to respond within fifteen minutes if they were to respond at all, and had the politburo been informed of the incoming strike they would probably have ordered a nuclear response. Institutional doctrine and bureaucratic momentum would have almost dictated it. There would have been almost no time for cool reflection.<\/p>\n

Fortunately for humanity, nobody reported the launch to the Soviet hierarchy. Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty officer at the early warning center that night, correctly dismissed the warning as a bizarre computer error and defied protocol by declining to report it.<\/p>\n

Petrov \u2013 who was subsequently reassigned, took early retirement, and suffered a nervous breakdown \u2013 might also have saved the world. Yet hardly anybody knew about him either until the 1990s, when a Russian general published his memoirs.<\/p>\n

Who knows how many other such brushes with Armageddon there have been. The secrecy around nuclear security is intense.<\/p>\n

2.<\/p>\n

The logic of Deterrence \u2013 the idea that baroque infrastructures for launching thousands of nuclear weapons at our enemies on very short notice should make us safer \u2013 has been orthodoxy in security discourse for so long that its absurdity has become invisible to insiders.\u00a0It is an axiom of nuclear discourse that deterrence works. Of course it works. The principle is so elegant and logical on paper, and the proof is in the metaphorical pudding: the world is still here. Academics can debate the minutiae of why<\/em> it works, but only those with their heads in the sand can question the fact<\/em> that it works.<\/p>\n

Yet there is almost no evidence for this.<\/p>\n

Consider this question: how much time must pass without a nuclear exchange before we can say there is evidence that Deterrence has kept us safe?<\/p>\n

Reliability engineers would not conclude that a lightbulb had worked as designed until it had performed satisfactorily for several years. And they would be reluctant to conclude that a bridge was successful until it had stood for decades. We expect bridges to perform for much longer than lightbulbs, in part, because bridge failures are so much more consequential. If Deterrence fails the consequences would be biblical. Relative to that, the half century that it has been US doctrine\u00a0is all but immaterial.<\/p>\n

It is certainly arguable that there have been no great-power conflicts during the fifty-plus years of Deterrence’s tenure, but what does this\u00a0prove?\u00a0Throughout the Nineteenth Century the world enjoyed almost a hundred years without a clash between the world’s powers, but the Pax Britannica<\/em> was not evidence that war had become obsolete. It collapsed in 1914 with the terrible carnage of the Great War: a conflict so traumatic that it was thought to have rendered all future wars \u2018unimaginable.\u2019 (Little were we to know). The Pax Romana<\/em> lasted even longer \u2013 almost two hundred years. The world entered the second half of the Twentieth Century in ruins, and has been characterized since then by ever-increasing economic interdependence and the radical decoupling of territory from power and prosperity. In this context, the relatively brief ‘Pax Atomica’<\/em> \u2013 fifty years in which we declined to commit planetary suicide \u2013\u00a0hardly seems like compelling evidence of our strategic brilliance.<\/p>\n

We spent many billions of dollars on the paraphernalia of Deterrence. We did so on the solemn advice of our nuclear shamans, who concluded \u2013 pardon me, calculated<\/em> \u2013 that it was the optimal way of keeping us secure. What we accidentally wrought with our billions was a generation that owes everything \u2013 every walk in the park; every Monday morning; every chicken nugget; everything<\/em> \u2013 to two middle-ranking, enemy<\/em> military officers, who made difficult decisions under enormous duress and spared us all.<\/p>\n

Eat your heart out, Doctor Frankenstein.<\/p>\n

\"Time<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1. Vasili Arkhipov might be the most important human being who ever lived. On October 27, 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis was at its peak. An American destroyer was trying to force a Soviet submarine to surface by harrying it with depth charges. The submarine’s sleep-deprived captain \u2013 cut off from radio contact and unable […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3,88,50,30,41],"tags":[8],"class_list":["post-138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deterrence-2","category-history","category-john","category-nuclear-security","category-stranger-than-fiction","tag-deterrence"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3CaZH-2e","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=138"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1090,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/138\/revisions\/1090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.nuclearphilosophy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}